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Politics >> > News Letters NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2002 19 December 2002
I know you are about to leave for your holidays and thought I should equip you with something to read, if you so desire. Let us begin with the good news: Sharon was elected to lead Likud. Mitzna was elected to lead Labour. Frankly, it sounds strange even to me writing this under the heading of "good news". But one has to looks at the possible alternatives. Sharon is preferable to Bibi. Mitzna is preferable to Ben-Eliezer. My first choice for Labour was Ramon, but he made too many mistakes in the past that disqualified from being a real contender. The stage was left for Mitzna and Ben-Eliezer, and the man who came from nowhere succeeded to beat the system and the organization and to receive Labour's leadership. This, I think, cannot happen in the Likud. Too many times in the past Ramon was not there when the party needed him. He lost the trust of the members. I think anyone who understands something in politics appreciate Ramon as a capable politician, in the first row of our politicians. But many Labour members are not sure that he will remain with Labour in times of crisis; many fear he might "go to the beach" instead of investing in the party, and country when needed. The man who came from nowhere, so to speak, Amram Mitzna, stormed the party and conquered it. This, for me, was a surprise. I didn't believe that he has the capacity to do this. He is decent, dovish, honest as you can be in politics, loyal to his supporters, and a mensch. His personality combines the sword with the olive leaf. Ben-Eliezer has a strong hold of the party center, but he cannot have a strong hold in the primaries, where more 100,000 people express their priorities. Fuad Ben-Eliezer is a doer. He is not a thinker, and he is not the leader the Labour supporters want. Many of them cannot identify with a person whose language and vocabulary are deficient, who always stood in the shadow of other people, who is stripped of any charisma, who is not conceived as capable to lead Labour anywhere, certainly not to the prime minister office. Mitzna had enough credibility to be a contender. And the dislike for Fuad was enough to make him win. Does Mitzna stand a chance to win the election? Not this one, I am afraid to say. If he survives in national politics, rebuild the party and make the right moves, he may stand a chance in the next elections. Incidentally, Mitzna declared that the first thing he would do if elected to office is to carry out the Gaza First Plan. As for Sharon: he won his party leadership because he worked hard to regain control over the party, and because he has sufficient credibility to continue one more term in office. I think all understand that he will not run for another term. So Bibi is young. He can wait for a while. Be patient, so his party member told him, and you will get there. We still love you. You just need to wait a bit. Bibi is the same Bibi. He did not change. He has too many faults which I don't wish to elaborate now. I will probably need to in the future… Anyway, I don't believe a word he says. I would not buy anything from him, not even milk, not to mention a used car. From the personal to the general: let us look now at the lists of the two parties for the Knesset. There are no great promises there. The only decent person in the first ten Labour candidates is Mitzna. One needs to look very hard to find another attractive personality in the whole list. The list seems more hawkish then the list for the last elections. But that's not the main reason for my dislike. The main reason is that many of the old faces whom I don’t like remain on the list, and the few new faces are far from what one wishes for one's country. Yuli Tamir and Danny Yatom are not people I am pleased to see in the Knesset. The Likud list is – well, what is it? How can I phrase myself without being too blunt? In one word, it is appalling. Unlike Labour, where open primaries of all party's members are held, the Likud restored faith in its center. Likud used to have open primaries, but the party's Center did not like it and restored the old system by which 3,500 Center members elect their representatives in the Knesset. That means that throughout the years, ministers and MKs are required to be extremely nice to the Center's members. Being nice means attending Bar Mitzvas and other festivities. It also means getting them jobs (unemployment in Israel is a real problem). The police is now investigating disorders and corruption in the Likud internal elections. People apparently were bribed and paid. I will not elaborate and let the police issue their findings. Suffice is to provide one example: a 27-year-old woman named Inbal Gavrieli was elected by hundreds of Center's members and is supposed to become MK. As far as her credentials testify, she did more or less nothing till now. However, her uncle owns a few casinos in Europe. Apparently, so it is contended, many Center's members had the occasion to visit these casinos as appreciated guests of the benevolent Gavrielli. The police are now hands full with work. Unfortunately, Ms. Gavrieli is only one example. One person whom I will miss is Dan Meridor. Meridor was left with no party after the collapse of the Merkas (Center) Party. He was offered to run in the Likud election but decided to spare himself the pleasure. He understood he stand no chance against the Gavriellis. Two people who did not find a place on the Labour's list, Yossi Beilin and Yael Dayan joined my party, Meretz. They are placed at the 11 and 12 places. The forecast for Meretz is currently 7 seats. I think we can still have a chance to improve our position until the elections. I am happy that Beilin joined the party. This coming election might be crucial. From 1948 until 1977, Mapai and its successors (Alliance, Labour) enjoyed dominance in the house. All governments were coalition governments, but Mapai was always the center of everything. The dominance was lost in 1977, when Begin came to power. From 1977 until 2000 the Knesset was more or less split in the middle: fifty percent of the house from the center to the right, and fifty percent from the center to the left. The picture might change in this coming election. I foresee a clear majority to the right, with 60 MKs and over. The left will have only about 40 MKs. The remaining 15-20 MKs will be of center parties, mainly of Shinuy (change), the anti-religious party. To comfort myself, I think that there is little we can do anyway with the existing Palestinian leadership. As long as Arafat remains in power, nothing can be done. No one, with a sane mind, would buy milk from him either. So we need to hold our heads above the water, and wait till a brighter future will shine through the clouds. We need to think in terms of seven year cycle. The bad seven years (I mean, really bad. This is not to say that the preceding years were all smelly roses) started in 2000. We have to wait till 2007, and then hopefully the cycle of 7 good years will begin. Between you and me, I will also settle for 5 year cycles. We continue to live with rising unemployment, cuts everywhere, shaky economy, threat of terror, and in the background always the American campaign against terrorism, starting with Iraq, and its consequences for Israel. I try to be optimistic concerning the Iraqi threat. I need to. Otherwise I simply will not be able to cope. The threats voiced on the media are so alarming, speaking of mass killings in scales that remind me of WW2. On the very personal scale, I am making plans to retire from my role as head of Library and Information Studies and take my sabbatical next year. I need some time for relaxation, and maybe this will provide me with the opportunity to see as many of you, my friends and colleagues across the seas. May I wish you Happy Christmas and a very happy New Year. I wish this year will be more boring then the preceding one, with more tranquility and peace. I wish it be a year of growth, of babies rather than bullets; a year that will restore our faith in the world we live. I know that some of you felt the urge to explore horizons beyond our planet. It is time to invest in our planet and make it a better place. Speak to you next year, yours as ever, Rafi
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