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Politics >> News Letters 30 January 2003 Dear Friends and colleagues, In my last message I wrote: This coming election might be crucial. From 1948 until 1977, Mapai and its successors (Alliance, Labour) enjoyed dominance in the house. All governments were coalition governments, but Mapai was always the center of everything. The dominance was lost in 1977, when Begin came to power. From 1977 until 2000 the Knesset was more or less split in the middle: fifty percent of the house was/is from the center to the right, and fifty percent from the center to the left. The picture might change in this coming election. I foresee a clear majority to the right, with 60 MKs and over. The left will have only about 40 MKs. The remaining 15-20 MKs will be of center parties, mainly of Shinuy (change), the anti-religious party. Unfortunately, the Likud did better than expected and the left reached less than 40 seats. At present, the situation is: Likud to the right: Religious parties: Right + religious: 67 Accordingly, if Sharon wishes he could easily comprise a right wing coalition. At present, Sharon declared this is not his wish. He even said that he will not invite Libermann to sit in his government. Center: Labour to the
left: Arab/Palestinian
parties Labour + left + Arabs: 38
Israel also paid a high price. I see a direct link between the lack of strong opposition and the rising corruption. Without sufficient safeguards and breaks, both parties are celebrating their powers and some are tempted to cross not only ethical but also legal boundaries. I think that the only exception to this anti-Likud/Labour coalition is a time of war. Such a coalition was justified in 2001, after the eruption of the Palestinian guerrilla warfare for a limited period of time. I did not imagine that Labour will stick to this coalition for years. I hoped its leaders will be wise enough to understand the political price they will have to pay if they do this. They were not clever, and now they pay the price. Hence, I wrote to Mitzna that patience will pay in the long run. To be credible, he should offer an opposition to the government, otherwise he would lose his identity. On 8 January 2003 he answered by saying that he agrees with every word I wrote. He said: "In any event, I will never sell my values for a governmental mess of lentils". Shortly afterwards, he announced this publicly, declaring he will not join a coalition government under Sharon. This, however, proved too late and too little. Mitzna did more than expected by becoming leader of Labour. Now he can expect long knives. He will need to show leadership and to prove that he is able to play in the elderly kindergarten with all the senior foxes. The majority of Labour leaders do not accept his leadership and will endeavor to sabotage him. We are heading as ever to more interesting times. While Mitzna may have patience, Peres does not. His age does not allow him. He wants peace in his life time. Sharon may try to convince him to join even if this means deserting his party as Moshe Dayan did in the first Begin government back in 1977. Sharon remains a mystery to me as to what he really wants. A few months ago he declared that Kfar Darom in the Gaza Strip is as important as Tel Aviv. With this view in mind we will not get very far, nor will the Palestinians. Yet I am sure Sharon realizes that Israel needs the American support to see any light through the dark clouds that hover above us. If he will continue with this belief, our situation will deteriorate further: no tourism; no growth; no outside investments; no build up; shaky economy; shaky education; rising unemployment; continued terror. I hope he does see this and as a leader would like us to have a better future for our children. Yossi Sarid had called me a few weeks ago, asking my permission to use my writings on the Gaza First Plan in the Meretz campaign. I tried to help Meretz and to do whatever I was asked to do. Meretz could certainly make a better use of my services. We lost quite a bit in this election. Meretz is conceived by many as irrelevant, pursuing an ideology that is good in abstract but does not fit our brute reality. Many told me they realize that the end result might as well be as Meretz wishes, but we are too far from the end result. We cannot force the Palestinians to do peace with us, and we should be first and foremost concerned with ourselves, not with Palestinians' rights. Sarid declared recently that Arafat is irrelevant, and that he's in favour of erecting a fence. This was too late, and too little. Sarid announced his resignation from Meretz leadership, taking responsibility for his failure. This is quite uncommon in Israeli politics. Meretz is heading towards interesting times too. I think Sharon will find it difficult to comprise a coalition. I hope Mitzna will stick to his line and will not succumb to any temptations. I hope Shinuy will stick to its promise not to sit with Shas. They should not repeat Meretz's mistake of joining a coalition with Shas. It will not work anyway. It is just a question of time when the coalition will collapse. Sharon will have to have a lot of courage to be the first prime minister in the history of Israel to comprise a coalition without the religious parties. Frankly, I don't think he has such courage. All this means that Sharon will need a lot of time to make things happen. It is quite likely that no coalition will survive for long. I envisage yet another costly election in less than three years at most. It would not surprise me if the elections will be sooner, much sooner. We have a very unstable elections system. This is the result of the blackmailing power of the religious parties. We need leaders with foresight to change the election system to something like the German elections system, the best in the world for my money. I am sorry to say that I don't see such leaders around. Present leaders see themselves dependent on the religious parties. They are actually not, but perceptions are sometimes more important than reality. Our main concerns will continue to be the Palestinian terrorism, our shaky economy (I think Sylvan Shalom, the present Finance Minister, should start looking for another office), and the American-Iraqi war. We are still under the looming threat of Saddam. Next week I am invited to Belgium to deliver four lectures, two of them on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I intend to present the Gaza First Plan at the universities of Ghent and Liege. With my best wishes, as ever, Rafi |
