|
Politics >> > News Letters NEWSLETTER NOVEMBER 2002 4 November 2002
Labour will hold its internal elections on 19 November 2002. I don't know who of the three will get the upper hand. I think I CAN say this will be the last elections for Shimon Peres. General election will be held early next year. Sharon has succeeded till now to maneuver Netanyahu and at this point it looks as if he will win the coming election. Then I foresee a fight between Bibi and Ramon. Ramon is the right person to build the Labour Party anew. He is the only leader who has such abilities and will. But this is quite remote. We need to worry about the coming days and weeks, and here there is no great promise. Fears are mounting from almost every possible direction. Let me explain. First, the government that Sharon will comprise now. He asked former Chief of Staff Mofas to serve as his Minister of Defence, and Mofas agreed. Mofas was not my cup of tea as Chief of Stuff, and it is quite unlikely for me to grow to like him in his new role. I foresee more blood. I presume Bugy Yaalon, our current Chief of Staff, is delighted. Back to the old partnership with his mentor. The Civil Rights Party, Meretz, was the one to voice unequivocal objection to Mofas. The government coalition will be comprised of religious and right-wing parties, meaning more money (that we don't have) to the settlements. Currently there are 219,000 settlers in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip. The settlements control 42 percent of the West Bank. Since the signing of the Oslo accords in September 1993, the number of settlers has been doubled. The government would like to see more Jews in the West Bank and Gaza. What kind of a peace deal the Palestinians can expect to have? When we look at these figures, Camp David 2000 looks like a sweet, remote dream. For us, and for the Palestinians. Second, a poll was conducted by an independent Palestinian agency in late September. Three of four Palestinians see violence as instrumental in their struggle and support terror. 50 percent support the continuation of terror attacks on civilian targets within the Green Line. 26 percent support the Fatach (Arafat's party), and 27 percent support the Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. 80 percent think that the Palestinian Authority is corrupted, and 84 percent wish to have substantial reforms in the PA. Arafat made some reforms. He rejected all those who criticized him and brought in some more of his own people. Abd Al Razak Yichya, who had the guts to say that the Palestinian people should stop the terror attacks on Israel, was removed from his post as Minister of the Interior. A lovely reform. Indeed, when we look at these facts and figures, Camp David 2000 looks like a sweet, remote dream. For us, and for the Palestinians. Third, Israeli economy is in one of its most difficult periods. There is no economic growth, no tourism. Unemployment in its pick. The official figure is 10% but it looks as if the rate is much higher; growing inflation; many businesses are closing down; the high tech industry is collapsing; the education system suffered severe cuts (the University of Haifa had a severe cut of 17% during the last two years); anywhere you look you see people desperate to have work. Only the security man power companies are flourishing. This is the result of two years of fighting and blood. Fourth, USA is likely to wage war on Iraq, and only God knows how this war will end. Recently North Korea has voiced a concrete threat, that they are not going to be just another domino dice along the War on Terrorism. People in Israel are very worried. The media publish horrifying articles about preparing the National Park and Bloomfield Football Stadium as temporary grave yards; evacuation of 200,000 people in a case of need; saying that there is a shortage of 600,000 gas masks; that Saddam has 3-4 atom bomb ready to be launched, etc. There are so many speculations about a possible Iraqi attack on Israel. It is disturbing and horrifying. No one knows what to expect. The world, luckily till now, does not have much experience with non-conventional warfare. Sharon received reassurances during his last visit to Washington. I hope these are correct. We fear a vicious attack of the kind Dying with Philistines. As much as I fear for Israel, I favour Bush plan vis-à-vis Iraq. I think Saddam is a menace to world's safety. He should be stopped, the sooner the better. Otherwise the consequences might be very harsh. Of course, the crisis should be dealt with great sensitivity and caution, otherwise it might deteriorate to a world war. The problem is that Saddam is not the only threat. There are more threats, and the vast majority of states - all but one - that sponsor terror are Muslim or Arab: Syria, Libya, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Iran and North Korea. Iran now tries to find paths to the US to calm the tension. Its leaders understand that they might be next. Another cause for concern is that our strongest ally in the region, Turkey, is turning to Islam. The victory of the Islamic party might be a vote against corruption and for a different, cleaner future. It might also be the case that Turkey is returning to religion for an answer. This might be a major blow for the American and Israeli interests.
Rafi |
